To argue, like Tim Tebow's mom that you should ignore doctors' advice and carry on with the pregnancy any way, is appalling. It worked out for her, but it won't work out for 99 other women.
Innumeracy can lead to death
Placental abruption causes 6% of all maternal deaths; in a pregnancy with placental abruption, death of the fetus is 12x more likely than in a normal pregnancy. So, if a doctor tells a young mother that the placenta is detached from her fetus and that the fetus is dangerously underweight (which increases the odds from 12x to about 100x), she should take the advice to abort. That way, she has the chance to have another baby, and her existing children do not lose their mother.
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I don't see how you got the "99 other women" in your last line. You say (1) "Placental abruption causes 6% of all maternal deaths" and (2) "in a pregnancy with placental abruption, death of the fetus is 12x more likely than in a normal pregnancy". Given these two statements, it looks like the risk of maternal death in a pregnancy without a placental abruption is (1/12)of 6% of 0.5%. You also say (3)if "the placenta is detached from her fetus and the fetus is dangerously underweight (which increases the odds from 12x to about 100x)" Now, 100 times 0.5% is 50%. So half of the women facing this condition are expected to die. My conclusion is vastly different from your conclusion that 99% of women in this condition are likely to die. Which of us is being innumerate?
ReplyDeleteBoth of us, I think.
ReplyDeleteIt's 6% of maternal deaths. Which is different from saying: 6% of all fetuses with placental abruption will die. So, the 6% doesn't play a part here.
My 99/100 refers to 99 of 100 women who are diagnosed with placental abruption. But even that is incorrect, since the stat is that such fetuses are 100x more likely to die than a normal fetus. Since we don't have that information, we don't have the right number.
If they include miscarriages in the normal fetus death statistic, it'll be closer to my 99%. If they don't it'll be closer to your 50%.
Thanks for responding.